Risk Governance and Risk-Based Policing for Transnational Threats

Abstract

Transnational threats challenge conventional policing as criminal networks cross jurisdictions and rapidly adapt their financial and technological infrastructures. This study examines how risk governance and risk-based policing can improve the evaluation of Indonesia’s responses to transnational threats. Using a qualitative descriptive-analytical design, the study applies documentary analysis covering identification, screening, coding, cross-case comparison, and thematic synthesis. Three cases are examined: cross-border narcotics trafficking, human trafficking and migrant vulnerability linked to online scam syndicates, and online gambling with related financial networks. Findings indicate that institutional reporting remains largely focused on enforcement outputs, including cases, suspects, seizures, and blocked digital content. Such measures demonstrate operational activity but do not necessarily indicate reduced underlying risk. The study proposes an impact-oriented framework connecting threat identification, risk assessment, intervention, output, outcome, risk reduction, and feedback. The framework emphasizes measurable indicators and accountability, shifting performance assessment from enforcement volume toward demonstrable and sustained risk reduction. The practical implication is a shift in the logic of institutional performance: from counting what was done to demonstrating what changed. Polri should therefore complement conventional output reporting with sustained network disruption, financial disruption, asset recovery, victim identification and protection, and response-time indicators to support cross-jurisdictional cooperation.